I'm not going to tell you that Fred's a shoo-in for the win in South Carolina. If you believe the pollsters, he's not. If you believe the pollsters, John McCain has the best numbers in South Carolina, with Huckabee in second.
The truth is, polls are often unreliable for predicting where one candidate will come out against another candidate on election day. Polls are fairly reliable, though, for determining which candidates are gaining support and which are losing support over time. By that measure, it's clear that Fred has solid upward momentum in South Carolina, while Huckabee has been dropping like a rock.
Fred's Rise:
With 48 hours to zero hour, it's anybody's guess what is going to happen in South Carolina. As a very savvy friend of mine said recently, "never underestimate the BIG MO."
The truth is, polls are often unreliable for predicting where one candidate will come out against another candidate on election day. Polls are fairly reliable, though, for determining which candidates are gaining support and which are losing support over time. By that measure, it's clear that Fred has solid upward momentum in South Carolina, while Huckabee has been dropping like a rock.
Fred's Rise:
Based on recent polls, it's clear that Fred is surging in South Carolina:Huckabee's Drop:Zogby 1/15 : 12%With respect to the third poll, the polling outfit notes:
Zogby 1/16 : 14%
Rasmussen 1/06: 11%
Rasmussen 1/09: 12%
Rasmussen 1/13: 16%
PPP 1/13: 14%
PPP 1/17: 17%"Thompson, who has been campaigning heavily in the state, is the only candidate to fare better than he did in a South Carolina poll PPP conducted late last week."In other words, there's one candidate in South Carolina with "BIG MO" (upward momentum) and his name is FRED THOMPSON.
In the period from January 6 to January 13, Rasmussen shows Huckabee dropping from 28% to 19%. That is a huge drop in such a short time, and it shows that South Carolinians are finally finding out about Huckabee's abysmal record in Arkansas on taxes, spending and illegal immigration.The Bottom Line:Rasmussen 1/06: 28%In other words, Huck has his own momentum--but not the kind anyone wants.
Rasmussen 1/09: 24%
Rasmussen 1/13: 19%
With 48 hours to zero hour, it's anybody's guess what is going to happen in South Carolina. As a very savvy friend of mine said recently, "never underestimate the BIG MO."
by Teej MacArthur 2008-01-20 19:51:59
Hey, folks! I'm a former resident of Illinois (West Central in Hamilton, north of Quincy) and a fan of Fred Thompson. I'm also recognizing the trouble he's in...just not the level of support at this point in the campaign to carry the day I don't think. I'm also a big fan of Mitt Romney, and Romney still has a very real chance to win. We have to find a way to defeat John-Feingold-Kennedy-Edwards-ACLU-McCain and Mike-Divide-the-GOP-Deeply-Huckabee and Rudy-Pro-Choice-Awful-Campaign-Strategy-Giuliani . We can do this if we get FredHeads and MittHeads together, but we gotta do it now. If Florida and Alabama can go Romney's way, I think McCain can be stopped. We don't want someone who seems to have more support among liberals and independents than he does among conservatives...